Is Vietnam’s leader Trong o­n his deathbed?

Vietnam’s social media outlets have been abuzz for the past week with claims that Communist Party chief and President Nguyen Phu Trong was rushed to hospital o­n April 14 and has yet to re-emerge in the public eye.

Some o­nline posts have said the country’s most powerful politician merely had the flu, while others have claimed he suffered either a brain hemorrhage or a stroke and is o­n his deathbed.

Spinning into the cyclone of speculation, some have even alleged that Trong was assassinated by supporters of his rival, former prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung. Trong, the reports note, was visiting Dung’s stronghold Kien Giang province when news of Trong’s illness first broke.

Others have claimed that there could have been a palace coup, perhaps led by Tran Quoc Vuong, who as the Central Committee’s Secretariat is in charge of managing the Party’s daily work, o­ne of the Party’s most powerful positions.

More credible reports suggest that he was either taken to Cho Ray hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, the southern financial hub, or was flown to a Japan for treatment. If the latter is proven true, his condition is likely serious; most senior politicians receive treatment domestically for reasons of nationalism barring life-threatening conditions.

Carl Thayer, an academic expert o­n Vietnam, wrote in a briefing that private sources say Trong has “partly recovered,” most likely from a stroke, but is paralyzed in o­ne arm.

Thayer added that the seriousness of his condition could be interpreted in whether he takes part in the next Central Committee plenum, which is set to be held in May.

Asia Times could not independently confirm any of the reports or speculation. But despite the state media’s reticence, Trong’s illness is now effectively an open secret in Vietnam’s tightly controlled society and internet. o­n April 14, “Trong” became o­ne of the most searched words o­n Google in Vietnam.

Trong became the Part’s general secretary in 2011. But his first five years in office were frustrated by a rivalry with then prime minister Dung, who had amassed an atypical amount of power in the civilian government apparatus at the expense of the Party.

With his power secure, Trong has launched an anti-corruption drive to remove Dung’s protégées from the Party and to sever the links between Party officials and corrupt executives in state-owned enterprises.

Trong has consolidated even more power since he became state president in late 2018, taking over from Tran Dai Quang, who passed away in September last year. It is notable that state media remained silent o­n Quang’s ill-health until just before he passed away.

If Trong were to unexpectedly fall from power, it could have a seismic effect o­n the country’s secretive and cloistered politics. For decades, the Party abided by an unwritten agreement that no o­ne person would hold more than o­ne the top four political positions at the same time.

Some analysts thought that by merging the president and general secretary posts, Trong aimed to consolidate his power and follow the path charted by Xi Jinping, who holds the same two positions in China. Another perhaps more compelling explanation is that he wanted to play a more active role in foreign affairs.

Vietnam’s relations with China can be conducted between their respective communist parties. But the United States, now o­ne of Vietnam’s closest allies, prefers to deal with members of civilian government, not those from the Party apparatus.